Falcon Telecom

Executive Briefing

Top Findings

1 Central's 5G Infrastructure Gap Is Causing Premium Subscriber Flight

Central has just 1 single 5G tower (capacity: 316 users) serving 990 subscribers on 5G Premium devices. Those 5G Premium subscribers churn at 25.45% — 2.6+ percentage points worse than any other region. The 5G promise is undeliverable. Central's entire tower base (14 towers) still includes 21% 3G infrastructure, the highest proportion in the network.

2 Central Is in a 5-Year Net Subscriber Decline — Accelerating

Central has lost more subscribers to churn than it gained via activations every year since 2021: −12, −17, −22, −20, −40. The decline is accelerating. With only ~4,000 total subscribers (5% of the network) concentrated in a single circle (Madhya Pradesh), this is a structural vulnerability that won't self-correct.

3 South's Competitive Position Collapsed in 2 Specific Circles in 2025

South — previously the most resilient region — suddenly lost 89 net subscribers to competitor port-outs in 2025 (vs +10 in 2024). This is NOT a broad trend: Telangana Tier 2 swung from +20 to −48, and Karnataka Tier 1 from −1 to −29. These two circles alone account for 87% of the damage. Targeted competitive response needed.

4 East Is the Silent ARPU Growth Leader

East's average ARPU grew from 986 to 1,034 over 7 years (+48 INR, 4.9% cumulative). West started higher (1,014) but grew only 6 INR (0.6%). East's ARPU growth rate is ~8x West's, despite similar segment mixes and network quality.

5 Network Quality Is Not a Regional Differentiator (Despite Being Cited as Churn Reason)

Call drop rates (0.0148–0.0154), throughput (27–42 Mbps), and signal strength (~−88 dBm) are nearly identical across all 60 circles. Yet "network quality" is the #2 churn reason everywhere. The perception of poor network may be driven by 5G expectations rather than actual 4G degradation.

6 West Bengal Tier 1 Urban Is an Anomaly

At 24.24% churn, West Bengal Tier 1 breaks the pattern where Tier 3 Rural circles dominate the worst churn list. This is a metro urban circle performing like a rural one. Warrants targeted investigation.

Unexplored Threads for Future Sessions

Corporate account retention — Corporate segment has 4.7–6.4% churn (lowest) — what's driving the variation? Are specific corporate accounts at risk?

Cohort analysis by activation year — Do 2019 cohorts behave differently from 2023 cohorts within the same region?

Seasonal patterns — Monthly churn timing could reveal competitive campaign effects

Channel effectiveness by region — Do App vs Store vs IVR drive different outcomes in different regions?

Add-on purchase as retention signal — Do subscribers who buy add-ons churn less? Does this vary by region?